Архив метки: global warming

DEVELOPMENT OF THEORY AND METHODS OF MONITORING FOREST ECOSYSTEMS UNDER GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (RESULTS OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH)

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Development of Theory and Methods of Monitoring Forest Ecosystems under Global Climate Change (Results of Scientific Research)  // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 1. 2026. P. 93-116. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

 

The paper examines the prospects for implementing the full triad of geoecological monitoring: observation (state assessment) – control (forecasting) – management (adaptation, regulation). Conceptual principles are proposed for an empirical-simulation method of landscape-ecological forecasting of forest ecosystems, revealing the local and regional mechanisms of their global changes. Paths for developing a new predictive geo-ecological concept, known as “Global Changes at the Local Level”, are substantiated, identifying these changes through an empirically established mapping of the background bioclimatic trend by the catenary system of forest biogeocoenoses, which makes this study a novelty. The ordination analysis of landscape connections aims to identify the transitions of forest communities to critical states based on the main discrete parameters of biological turnover. The landscape-ecological forecast is presented as a system of operations with the ecological (hydrothermal) niches of the studied objects. Empirical-simulation predictive modeling is described as the reproduction of future scenarios of biogeocoenotic systems according to the laws of their basic spatial organization. A methodology developed by the author for quantitatively assessing the resilience of forest ecosystems is presented. The mechanisms of adaptation of forest ecosystems to global climate signals are examined through the prism of their functional resilience to the impact of these signals. The ecological resources of forest cover are described in the biotic regulation of the carbon cycle, aimed at mitigating global warming, as well as in ensuring the transition to adaptive forestry.

Keywords: global warming, forest geo(eco)systems, geo-ecological monitoring, empirical-simulation predictive modeling, forest ecosystem resilience, quantitative methods of ecological analysis, carbon cycle, forest ecological resources, global warming mitigation.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2026-1-93-116

EDN: VJGNPO

PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENTS OF THE IMPACT OF MODERN GLOBAL WARMING ON THE LANDSCAPE-ZONAL CONDITIONS OF THE VOLGA RIVER BASIN

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Predictive Assessments of the Impact of modern global Warming of the Landscape-zonal Conditions of the Volga River Basin // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 3. 2025. P. 114-135. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

Prognostic landscape-ecological scenarios of the nearest future of biosphere have been considered for the first time by the example of a large region, such as the basin of the Volga River. The analysis was based on a method of regional landscape-ecological prognosis, developed by the author, using the methods of discrete mathematics. The analytic and cartographic models of future landscape-ecological conditions were obtained for 2050, 2075 and 2100. The mechanisms of shifts in the mosaic structure of vegetation, soils and landscapes have been revealed on the model territory under different scenarios of disturbing influence of climatic system, which are anticipated in the foreseeable future, i.e., before the end of XXI century. Forthcoming warming caused by human activities and accompanied by the superfluous increase of the surface river flow will occur at the expense of the relative decrease of evapotranspiration, especially, of the groundwater flow. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend has been predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime of soils and plant cover structure of the territory. The prognostic models showed the convergence of phytocoenoses into new zonal types of vegetation.

Keywords: global warming, Volga River basin, water balance, vegetation cover, nature zonality, empirical-statistical modeling, regional landscape-ecological prognoses.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-3-114-135

EDN: IKDWFM

ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES OF BOREAL FORESTS IN THE ADSORPTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND IN ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING (TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE)

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Ecological Resources of Boreal Forests in the Adsorption of Greenhouse Gases and in Adaptation to Global Warming (to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change) // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 1. 2025. P. 82-113. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

 

One of the most important ways to achieve the goals stipulated by the Paris Agreement (2015) on climate change is to solve a two-fold task: 1) the adsorption of CO2 by the forest communities from the atmosphere during global warming, 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of adsorption itself. Report presents the regional experience of the numerical solution of this task. Calculations of the carbon balance of forests in the Oka–Volga River Basin were carried out for global forecasts of moderate and extreme warming. The proposed index of labile elastic-plastic stability of forest ecosystems, which characterizes their succession-restorative potential, was used as an indicator of adaptation. A numerical experiment was conducted to assess the effect of the elastic-plastic stability of forest formations and the predicted climatic conditions on the carbon balance. In the upcoming 100-year forecast period, the overall stability of forest formations should increase, and to the greatest extent with extreme warming. Accordingly, one should expect a significant increase in the ability of boreal forests to ab-sorb greenhouse gases. It is determined unambiguous picture of a significant increase in the adsorption capacity of boreal forests with a rise in their regenerative potential.

Funding. This research was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 18-05-00024-а.

Keywords: forest ecosystems, global warming, adsorption of greenhouse gases, adaptation of the forests to the climate change, predictive empirical-statistical modeling.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-1-82-113

EDN: SJOGSL