Архив метки: empirical-statistical modeling

PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENTS OF THE IMPACT OF MODERN GLOBAL WARMING ON THE LANDSCAPE-ZONAL CONDITIONS OF THE VOLGA RIVER BASIN

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Predictive Assessments of the Impact of modern global Warming of the Landscape-zonal Conditions of the Volga River Basin // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 3. 2025. P. 114-135. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

Prognostic landscape-ecological scenarios of the nearest future of biosphere have been considered for the first time by the example of a large region, such as the basin of the Volga River. The analysis was based on a method of regional landscape-ecological prognosis, developed by the author, using the methods of discrete mathematics. The analytic and cartographic models of future landscape-ecological conditions were obtained for 2050, 2075 and 2100. The mechanisms of shifts in the mosaic structure of vegetation, soils and landscapes have been revealed on the model territory under different scenarios of disturbing influence of climatic system, which are anticipated in the foreseeable future, i.e., before the end of XXI century. Forthcoming warming caused by human activities and accompanied by the superfluous increase of the surface river flow will occur at the expense of the relative decrease of evapotranspiration, especially, of the groundwater flow. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend has been predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime of soils and plant cover structure of the territory. The prognostic models showed the convergence of phytocoenoses into new zonal types of vegetation.

Keywords: global warming, Volga River basin, water balance, vegetation cover, nature zonality, empirical-statistical modeling, regional landscape-ecological prognoses.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-3-114-135

EDN: IKDWFM

EMPIRICAL-SIMULATION PREDICTIVE MODELING OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN THEIR CLIMATOGENIC MONITORING

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Empirical-simulation Predictive Modeling of Forest Ecosystems in Their Climatogenic Monitoring // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 2. 2025. P. 79-104. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

The article presents a strategy for studying the mechanisms of functional and structural organization of forest ecosystems as objects of terrestrial geosystem monitoring. The spatial-functional monitoring of forests is based on empirically established local and regional landscape-ecological connections, which are considered as mechanisms of metabolic reactions of forest ecosystems to certain climatic trends. This is the novelty of the basic and predictive empirical-simulation concept of regional and local geoecological monitoring developed by the author. Ordination analysis of landscape connections is aimed at identifying transitions of forest communities to critical states according to the main discrete parameters of biological circulation. Catenary landscape-ecological structures that form regional systems of localized natural zonality are capable of imitating the main directions and scales of geosystemic restructurings. Landscape-ecological forecasting is experimental in nature. It is presented as a system of operations with ecological (hydrothermal) niches of the objects under study. In calculation models, the course of predicted processes is reproduced using their empirical imitation by spatially distributed parameters of basic ecological niches. The description of future states of biogeocoenotic systems is carried out according to their current spatial organization in accordance with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment. The ambiguous nature of the transformation of forest topogeosystems is revealed at a fixed value of the regional geophysical trend, when their new state can have features of not one, but several basic states. A working algorithm for predictive landscape-ecological calculations is presented. Based on geoecological forecasts, the problem of regulating the quality of the natural environment under global climate change through carbon balances and the functional stability of forest ecosystems is covered.

Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystems, geoecological monitoring, empirical-statistical modeling, ordination analysis, empirical simulation of regional climatic trends, polyzonality of biogeocoenological systems, landscape-ecological forecasting.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-2-79-103

EDN: TXDHTT