Архив метки: forest ecosystems

EMPIRICAL-SIMULATION PREDICTIVE MODELING OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN THEIR CLIMATOGENIC MONITORING

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Empirical-simulation Predictive Modeling of Forest Ecosystems in Their Climatogenic Monitoring // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 2. 2025. P. 79-104. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

The article presents a strategy for studying the mechanisms of functional and structural organization of forest ecosystems as objects of terrestrial geosystem monitoring. The spatial-functional monitoring of forests is based on empirically established local and regional landscape-ecological connections, which are considered as mechanisms of metabolic reactions of forest ecosystems to certain climatic trends. This is the novelty of the basic and predictive empirical-simulation concept of regional and local geoecological monitoring developed by the author. Ordination analysis of landscape connections is aimed at identifying transitions of forest communities to critical states according to the main discrete parameters of biological circulation. Catenary landscape-ecological structures that form regional systems of localized natural zonality are capable of imitating the main directions and scales of geosystemic restructurings. Landscape-ecological forecasting is experimental in nature. It is presented as a system of operations with ecological (hydrothermal) niches of the objects under study. In calculation models, the course of predicted processes is reproduced using their empirical imitation by spatially distributed parameters of basic ecological niches. The description of future states of biogeocoenotic systems is carried out according to their current spatial organization in accordance with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment. The ambiguous nature of the transformation of forest topogeosystems is revealed at a fixed value of the regional geophysical trend, when their new state can have features of not one, but several basic states. A working algorithm for predictive landscape-ecological calculations is presented. Based on geoecological forecasts, the problem of regulating the quality of the natural environment under global climate change through carbon balances and the functional stability of forest ecosystems is covered.

Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystems, geoecological monitoring, empirical-statistical modeling, ordination analysis, empirical simulation of regional climatic trends, polyzonality of biogeocoenological systems, landscape-ecological forecasting.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-2-79-103

EDN: TXDHTT

ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES OF BOREAL FORESTS IN THE ADSORPTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND IN ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING (TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE)

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Ecological Resources of Boreal Forests in the Adsorption of Greenhouse Gases and in Adaptation to Global Warming (to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change) // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 1. 2025. P. 82-113. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

 

One of the most important ways to achieve the goals stipulated by the Paris Agreement (2015) on climate change is to solve a two-fold task: 1) the adsorption of CO2 by the forest communities from the atmosphere during global warming, 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of adsorption itself. Report presents the regional experience of the numerical solution of this task. Calculations of the carbon balance of forests in the Oka–Volga River Basin were carried out for global forecasts of moderate and extreme warming. The proposed index of labile elastic-plastic stability of forest ecosystems, which characterizes their succession-restorative potential, was used as an indicator of adaptation. A numerical experiment was conducted to assess the effect of the elastic-plastic stability of forest formations and the predicted climatic conditions on the carbon balance. In the upcoming 100-year forecast period, the overall stability of forest formations should increase, and to the greatest extent with extreme warming. Accordingly, one should expect a significant increase in the ability of boreal forests to ab-sorb greenhouse gases. It is determined unambiguous picture of a significant increase in the adsorption capacity of boreal forests with a rise in their regenerative potential.

Funding. This research was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 18-05-00024-а.

Keywords: forest ecosystems, global warming, adsorption of greenhouse gases, adaptation of the forests to the climate change, predictive empirical-statistical modeling.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-1-82-113

EDN: SJOGSL

ASSESSMENT OF THE ROLE THAT FOREST COVER OF THE VOLGA RIVER BASIN PLAYS IN THE REGULATION OF CARBON CYCLE AND MITIGATION OF GLOBAL WARMING (PREDICTIVE EMPIRICAL-STATISTICAL MODELING)

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kolomyts E.G. Assessment of the Role that Forest Cover of the Volga River Basin Plays in the Regulation of Carbon Cycle and Mitigation of Global Warming (Predictive Empirical-Statistical Modeling) // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 3. 2024. P. 5-35. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

 

 

Using the forest ecosystems of the Volga Basin as an example, the discrete empirical-statistical models were developed to predict future biotic regulation of the carbon cycle in the “forest–atmosphere” system under two climate scenarios, moderate (according to the E GISS model) and extreme (according to the HadCM3 model). Based on the specific and total values of the carbon balance of forest formations, we carried out a quantitative assessment of their environmental resources that ensure positive cycle regulation. Based on the models, certain local rows and zonal-regional types of atmospheric CO2 regulation by forest cover during the development of climate thermal aridization were identified for each ecological region. The structure of carbon balance for forest biogeocoenoses of different ecological regions is described. A comparative analysis of carbon parameters was carried out for two conventional types of forest ecosystems: the restored indigenous forests and the actual forest cover (indigenous + derived forests). It was revealed that the replacement of indigenous forests (coniferous, mixed, broad-leaved) with derivatives forests (small-leaved) leads to a general, very significant reduction in the ecological resources of the forest cover. Verification of the carbon balance models was carried out for the boreal forests of Central Canada.

Results of benchmark calculations of annual and average ecosystem carbon flow in Canadian forests for 1990-2001 turned out to be close to the forecasted values of the carbon balance of the Volga Basin forests for the period up to 2050, but only according to the HadCM3 model, the climate scenarios of which are adequate to the current rate of global warming, but do not correspond to the norm set by the Paris Agreement (2015). Based on virtual forecasting ecological maps of the Oka Basin, the partial contribution of forest formations to the biotic regulation of the carbon cycle was assessed, which can be used in the strategy of afforestation in currently deforested areas. These results signify another step towards transformation of the Gorshkov–Utkin concepts on the ecological forests resources in the carbon cycle regulation into a full-fledged scientific and methodological concept.

Conflict of Interest. This article was not written from scratch as it is a result of the author’s long-term scientific research in geographical ecology, and, thus, is based on the materials of his publications, some of which are listed in the References. Therefore, the author admits there may be a conflict of interest with a reader/reviewer who is not familiar with the author’s scientific and methodological researches.

Keywords: forest ecosystems, boreal belt, primary and derived forests, biological cycle, carbon pools, climate change, carbon balance, ecological resources of forest cover, regulation of the carbon cycle.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2024-3-5-35

EDN: APBQTP

TRANSFORMATION FOREST ECOSYSTEMS OF MIDDLE VOLGA FOREST-STEPPE

Ecology and dynamics Опубликовано автором

Kudryavtsev А.Yu. Transformation Forest Ecosystems of Middle Volga Forest-Steppe // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. 2021. Vol. 5. No 2. P. 57-85. | Abstract | PDF | Reference |     At the forest-steppe zone unbroken forest cover are absent. Typical … Read next