Kolomyts E.G. Predictive Assessments of the Impact of modern global Warming of the Landscape-zonal Conditions of the Volga River Basin // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 3. 2025. P. 114-135. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

Prognostic landscape-ecological scenarios of the nearest future of biosphere have been considered for the first time by the example of a large region, such as the basin of the Volga River. The analysis was based on a method of regional landscape-ecological prognosis, developed by the author, using the methods of discrete mathematics. The analytic and cartographic models of future landscape-ecological conditions were obtained for 2050, 2075 and 2100. The mechanisms of shifts in the mosaic structure of vegetation, soils and landscapes have been revealed on the model territory under different scenarios of disturbing influence of climatic system, which are anticipated in the foreseeable future, i.e., before the end of XXI century. Forthcoming warming caused by human activities and accompanied by the superfluous increase of the surface river flow will occur at the expense of the relative decrease of evapotranspiration, especially, of the groundwater flow. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend has been predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime of soils and plant cover structure of the territory. The prognostic models showed the convergence of phytocoenoses into new zonal types of vegetation.

Keywords: global warming, Volga River basin, water balance, vegetation cover, nature zonality, empirical-statistical modeling, regional landscape-ecological prognoses.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-3-114-135

EDN: IKDWFM