Kolomyts E.G. Ecological Resources of Boreal Forests in the Adsorption of Greenhouse Gases and in Adaptation to Global Warming (to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change) // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 1. 2025. P. 82-113. | Abstract | PDF | Reference
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- Raster base map of zonal-provincial groups of indigenous plant associations (modern + restored) in the territory of the main drainage basin of the Volga River Basin
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- Average values of the indices of elastic-plastic stability of forest formations in the Oka River Basin (for water-economic areas)
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- The distribution of the specific carbon balance in the restored primary forest formations of the Volga River Basin for scenario of regional warming (2200), according to the E GISS model
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- The distribution of the specific carbon balance (t / ha) of the restored primary forest formations of the Volga River Basin for the extreme warming scenario, according to the HadCM3 model for a period of 2100
One of the most important ways to achieve the goals stipulated by the Paris Agreement (2015) on climate change is to solve a two-fold task: 1) the adsorption of CO2 by the forest communities from the atmosphere during global warming, 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of adsorption itself. Report presents the regional experience of the numerical solution of this task. Calculations of the carbon balance of forests in the Oka–Volga River Basin were carried out for global forecasts of moderate and extreme warming. The proposed index of labile elastic-plastic stability of forest ecosystems, which characterizes their succession-restorative potential, was used as an indicator of adaptation. A numerical experiment was conducted to assess the effect of the elastic-plastic stability of forest formations and the predicted climatic conditions on the carbon balance. In the upcoming 100-year forecast period, the overall stability of forest formations should increase, and to the greatest extent with extreme warming. Accordingly, one should expect a significant increase in the ability of boreal forests to ab-sorb greenhouse gases. It is determined unambiguous picture of a significant increase in the adsorption capacity of boreal forests with a rise in their regenerative potential.
Funding. This research was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 18-05-00024-а.
Keywords: forest ecosystems, global warming, adsorption of greenhouse gases, adaptation of the forests to the climate change, predictive empirical-statistical modeling.
DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-1-82-113
EDN: SJOGSL