Kolomyts E.G. Assessment of the Role that Forest Cover of the Volga River Basin Plays in the Regulation of Carbon Cycle and Mitigation of Global Warming (Predictive Empirical-Statistical Modeling) // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 3. 2024. P. 5-35. | Abstract | PDF | Reference

 

 

Using the forest ecosystems of the Volga Basin as an example, the discrete empirical-statistical models were developed to predict future biotic regulation of the carbon cycle in the “forest–atmosphere” system under two climate scenarios, moderate (according to the E GISS model) and extreme (according to the HadCM3 model). Based on the specific and total values of the carbon balance of forest formations, we carried out a quantitative assessment of their environmental resources that ensure positive cycle regulation. Based on the models, certain local rows and zonal-regional types of atmospheric CO₂ regulation by forest cover during the development of climate thermal aridization were identified for each ecological region. The structure of carbon balance for forest biogeocoenoses of different ecological regions is described. A comparative analysis of carbon parameters was carried out for two conventional types of forest ecosystems: the restored indigenous forests and the actual forest cover (indigenous + derived forests). It was revealed that the replacement of indigenous forests (coniferous, mixed, broad-leaved) with derivatives forests (small-leaved) leads to a general, very significant reduction in the ecological resources of the forest cover. Verification of the carbon balance models was carried out for the boreal forests of Central Canada.

Results of benchmark calculations of annual and average ecosystem carbon flow in Canadian forests for 1990-2001 turned out to be close to the forecasted values of the carbon balance of the Volga Basin forests for the period up to 2050, but only according to the HadCM3 model, the climate scenarios of which are adequate to the current rate of global warming, but do not correspond to the norm set by the Paris Agreement (2015). Based on virtual forecasting ecological maps of the Oka Basin, the partial contribution of forest formations to the biotic regulation of the carbon cycle was assessed, which can be used in the strategy of afforestation in currently deforested areas. These results signify another step towards transformation of the Gorshkov–Utkin concepts on the ecological forests resources in the carbon cycle regulation into a full-fledged scientific and methodological concept.

Conflict of Interest. This article was not written from scratch as it is a result of the author’s long-term scientific research in geographical ecology, and, thus, is based on the materials of his publications, some of which are listed in the References. Therefore, the author admits there may be a conflict of interest with a reader/reviewer who is not familiar with the author’s scientific and methodological researches.

Keywords: forest ecosystems, boreal belt, primary and derived forests, biological cycle, carbon pools, climate change, carbon balance, ecological resources of forest cover, regulation of the carbon cycle.

DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2024-3-5-35

EDN: APBQTP