Kolomyts E.G. Empirical-simulation Predictive Modeling of Forest Ecosystems in Their Climatogenic Monitoring // Ecosystems: ecology and dynamics. No 2. 2025. P. 79-104. | Abstract | PDF | Reference
The article presents a strategy for studying the mechanisms of functional and structural organization of forest ecosystems as objects of terrestrial geosystem monitoring. The spatial-functional monitoring of forests is based on empirically established local and regional landscape-ecological connections, which are considered as mechanisms of metabolic reactions of forest ecosystems to certain climatic trends. This is the novelty of the basic and predictive empirical-simulation concept of regional and local geoecological monitoring developed by the author. Ordination analysis of landscape connections is aimed at identifying transitions of forest communities to critical states according to the main discrete parameters of biological circulation. Catenary landscape-ecological structures that form regional systems of localized natural zonality are capable of imitating the main directions and scales of geosystemic restructurings. Landscape-ecological forecasting is experimental in nature. It is presented as a system of operations with ecological (hydrothermal) niches of the objects under study. In calculation models, the course of predicted processes is reproduced using their empirical imitation by spatially distributed parameters of basic ecological niches. The description of future states of biogeocoenotic systems is carried out according to their current spatial organization in accordance with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment. The ambiguous nature of the transformation of forest topogeosystems is revealed at a fixed value of the regional geophysical trend, when their new state can have features of not one, but several basic states. A working algorithm for predictive landscape-ecological calculations is presented. Based on geoecological forecasts, the problem of regulating the quality of the natural environment under global climate change through carbon balances and the functional stability of forest ecosystems is covered.
Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystems, geoecological monitoring, empirical-statistical modeling, ordination analysis, empirical simulation of regional climatic trends, polyzonality of biogeocoenological systems, landscape-ecological forecasting.
DOI: 10.24412/2542-2006-2025-2-79-103
EDN: TXDHTT